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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.